I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).
I do believe I warned against this and even opened a long.
I remember it and felt a similar sentiment, but Risto was out of sorts - he was not measured at all, did not give the odds as he usually would. It was (and still is) 'possible' but even then I felt it was at best a 70/30
against a dip that low.
Historically (yes, I know it's as good as a horoscope), XMR has dipped to lows in December, broken out in Feb, had an August high and then slid down.
It has also normally reacted inversely a disproportionately to BTC price moves. What seems to be happening is the start of a less fixed inverse relationship and Monero reacting more to events in its own sphere, which makes sense as it matures.
I do think the GUI will be positive and Ring CT implementation, if it goes smoothly, will show we have a great dev team. Both ETH and ZEC have blown it, albeit in different ways. XMR just steadily chugs on and if we stay above 0.01 for the rest of this month, it is hard to see us returning significantly below it again, bar 'black swan' or a BTC run of 2013 proportions.
I was there in 2015 with the dramatic lows of XMR: I was afraid of similar scenario with the rising BTC trend and the decrease of XMR, I was hesitating selling a part of my 1000 xmr: maybe I would have sold even without rpietela alarming post...