Really wish I had seen the thread RHavar linked to earlier.
I am starting to think this bankroll decline is all from accepting bets at insane kelly multipliers.
I would very much like to see a breakdown of bets by attempted win size.
What is the current max win? How is it determined?
How do you determine kelly criterion for plinko bets or any wager with multiple outcomes?
I am starting to think this bankroll decline is all from accepting bets at insane kelly multipliers.
I would very much like to see a breakdown of bets by attempted win size.
What is the current max win? How is it determined?
How do you determine kelly criterion for plinko bets or any wager with multiple outcomes?
Current max win is 1% of the house bankroll. It also has some restrictions. If for example, a bet has a house edge of 0.5%, the max win is 0.5% of the house bankroll. This applies to plinko bets, jackpot style bets, large multipliers, etc...
Previously we were operating at a true 3.3333 kelly. For reference, BetKing was allowing for more than 10x true kelly and it had the highest profit of any crowdfunded site. BitDice also allows for 10x kelly and has performed quite well (even at less than 70% expected value).
sorry I don't understand the meaning of true 3.3333 Kelly
what can be said against half Kelly?
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kelly's criterion
As we can see from the diagram above, if we bet twice Kelly, we would have an expected growth rate of zero, and further increasing our bet would be a suicide in long run, even if we have the advantage in the gamble. The expected long-term growth rate will also decrease when the gambler bets aggressively, yet with higher risk than Kelly. This is why some gamblers would use a Half Kelly, half betting size of Kellys Criterion, to protect them from being over-aggressive. The size is halved while the expected growth rate is 75% of Kellys, which makes Half Kelly a welcoming choice.
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