Sure there are always some alts that pump, but like you said, it's a lottery. How the hell are you supposed to guess what alt will pump? It seems that every horse has been already beaten. We got the anonymous coins phase, then the smart contracs phase.. now what's next? For a coin to pump hard it must offer something new.
i dont see as phases( smart contracts, then anonymous, then social media(steem?)), just big hiped coins.
nobody knows which will be next, but you can always follow the project and buy the dips.
like now, after this bitcoin rally most alts are very cheap. If bitcoin stop raising for
at least a few days i'm sure most alts will recover.