Re: And another video: Changed my mind on Ethereum, Monero and Dash
Copied this reply from the following linked thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1727852.msg17295418#msg17295418
Monero is apparently a solid alternative code base to Bitcoin clients. The people who have worked on it are talented and I presume the codebase reflects this.
Anonymity/privacy is reasonably important to some (probably quite small) segment of the population and if you think about it, even the marketcap of Bitcoin is tiny, so more likely than not the marketcaps of solid anonymity coins such as Zcash and Monero will continue to go up. And investors need diversification.
However, neither Monero nor Zcash have solved the hard scaling issues and the mass adoption markets. So in that sense, when people complain about the official GUI taking 32 months to arrive, they are pointing out the culture of these ecosystems and their inability to focus on being a Facebook killer or something of that sort.
Monero's ecosystem has been I think working on anonymous marketplaces, but that doesn't seem to be a Facebook killer or something that will impact the masses. But again, that doesn't mean the marketcaps of these solid codebases won't go up.
My point is crypto-currency is still a small world. Within that small world, Monero and Zcash are reasonably important. But neither scale out or impact the large world out there. When we have a mass adopted crypto-currency that also has privacy, then we will all be multi-millionaires for having invested $1000s in that development.
So buy some Zcash and Monero for diversification, but hang on to most of your BTC because it is going much higher. And make sure you take a $1000+ bet into that project that can scale out to the masses and has a valid mass adoption use case.
Obviously savvy speculators will do other trades such as buying LTC in October as I advised to do. Btw, I also advised buying Monero earlier this year, before it had its massive rise.
Those who want more profits try to trade between BTC and altcoins on a see-saw. After BTC peaks, then the altcoins go on a run up, as BTC runs out to altcoins. Then back to BTC or hold in dollars again. Repeat.
Also taking speculations on ICO and mined launches of best-of-breed altcoins has been a way to accumulate more BTC.
Smart money wants to build their stack of BTC any way they can and doesn't waste time with hands-tied-behind-back perma-bull, uni-asset ideology.
Crypto-curreny is an ecosystem. Not a monotheism. Leave the religion to the losers. Smart money is objective.
LTC (Litecoin) has the similar chart pattern as BTC. It has in the past followed BTC moves on a delay, with much greater percentage gains.
I would guess after BTC hits the peak of this move (probably at the handle of the C&H at ~$800ish), then LTC will blast off, if not before.
The following was written Oct. 27 when BTC was in the low $600s and basically on the day before BTC started its rise after bottoming from the Bitfinex hack:
https://steemit.com/money/@anonymint/speculation-rule-buy-when-others-are-irrationally-pessimistic-cautious
Here is my one mistake recently, which I also had cautioned everyone that it was only a theory and could end up being wrong. And those who sold gold at mid-$1300s and bought Bitcoin in the mid-$600s as I advised in November, are smiling now:
I was wrong and here is my record:
Don't forget my published prediction of the silver move from $22 to $48, then back down to $25 many months before it happened in 2011 (and did you know that I got fucked over in the Philippines not enabling me to profit on my prediction! If I had my investment in an ETF, my sell order at the peak and short would have been honored! Not to mention that most of my metal was stolen by the only vault provider in Manila you jack ass, and there is no way to sue because they refuse to give accurate accounting!):
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html
Btw, I correctly predicted the low of Bitcoin at $150 first time, and way before it happened. I predicted the fall from the $600s to $300s, and the $150 low. I thought it would deadcat bounce and then go to lower lows, because...
In fact, I mentioned it day before yesterday:
The gold to $850 is still on the table. Nothing with that has changed. As predicted, the dollar and USA stocks went up and the pound crashed towards parity as predicted. This is why gold is back down in the $1200s, on its way probably to $1050 again and lower (we might get a few more deadcat bounces along the way).
Sorry dollar up, gold down. That has not changed.
My mistake was assuming BTC was correlated to gold as a tinfoil hat asset. Because Satoshi even pitched BTC as gold in his whitepaper. And I know many of early adopters in BTC came from being tinfoil hats (including myself and Bitcoin millionaire rpietila). Btw, I had more silver than rpietila and had it not been for my problem in 2012 with my health and family breakup then I would have been poised to invest $100,000 in BTC at $10 in January 2013. I told rpietila to go ahead, but I told him I had been destroyed by events in 2012 and couldn't follow him. That is fate. But my destiny is not yet complete.
Any way, back to the issue at hand, you should remember that in this thread, I told everyone numerous times that it was my theory that BTC might be correlated to gold, but that I wasn't sure and that I could be wrong. And so I was wrong, but I also admitted at the time that I wasn't sure.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1727852.msg17295418#msg17295418
Monero is apparently a solid alternative code base to Bitcoin clients. The people who have worked on it are talented and I presume the codebase reflects this.
Anonymity/privacy is reasonably important to some (probably quite small) segment of the population and if you think about it, even the marketcap of Bitcoin is tiny, so more likely than not the marketcaps of solid anonymity coins such as Zcash and Monero will continue to go up. And investors need diversification.
However, neither Monero nor Zcash have solved the hard scaling issues and the mass adoption markets. So in that sense, when people complain about the official GUI taking 32 months to arrive, they are pointing out the culture of these ecosystems and their inability to focus on being a Facebook killer or something of that sort.
Monero's ecosystem has been I think working on anonymous marketplaces, but that doesn't seem to be a Facebook killer or something that will impact the masses. But again, that doesn't mean the marketcaps of these solid codebases won't go up.
My point is crypto-currency is still a small world. Within that small world, Monero and Zcash are reasonably important. But neither scale out or impact the large world out there. When we have a mass adopted crypto-currency that also has privacy, then we will all be multi-millionaires for having invested $1000s in that development.
So buy some Zcash and Monero for diversification, but hang on to most of your BTC because it is going much higher. And make sure you take a $1000+ bet into that project that can scale out to the masses and has a valid mass adoption use case.
Obviously savvy speculators will do other trades such as buying LTC in October as I advised to do. Btw, I also advised buying Monero earlier this year, before it had its massive rise.
I suppose someone probably already posted this chart. I had never looked at the long-term Monero chart before:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/
That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/
That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).
I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately. 
Those who want more profits try to trade between BTC and altcoins on a see-saw. After BTC peaks, then the altcoins go on a run up, as BTC runs out to altcoins. Then back to BTC or hold in dollars again. Repeat.
Also taking speculations on ICO and mined launches of best-of-breed altcoins has been a way to accumulate more BTC.
Smart money wants to build their stack of BTC any way they can and doesn't waste time with hands-tied-behind-back perma-bull, uni-asset ideology.
Crypto-curreny is an ecosystem. Not a monotheism. Leave the religion to the losers. Smart money is objective.
LTC (Litecoin) has the similar chart pattern as BTC. It has in the past followed BTC moves on a delay, with much greater percentage gains.
I would guess after BTC hits the peak of this move (probably at the handle of the C&H at ~$800ish), then LTC will blast off, if not before.
The following was written Oct. 27 when BTC was in the low $600s and basically on the day before BTC started its rise after bottoming from the Bitfinex hack:
https://steemit.com/money/@anonymint/speculation-rule-buy-when-others-are-irrationally-pessimistic-cautious
Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious
At the low of an investment, everyone is pessimistic and vowing to never "buy that shit". They panic or attrition capitulate to go massively short and sell irrationally.
This also seems to be the case on the way back up, especially a frustrating, meandering slow rise (after that $10 to $1000 moonshot in 2013 which is what everyone is lusting for), as pessimism causes people to find any excuse to give as to why "that shit still isn't ready for prime time":
...
Several crypto investors have complained to me about the (miners) wrangling over Blockstream's changes to Bitcoin, and even the potential technical clusterfuck of Lightning Networks.
This to me is indicative of the time to buy with both fists...
At the low of an investment, everyone is pessimistic and vowing to never "buy that shit". They panic or attrition capitulate to go massively short and sell irrationally.
This also seems to be the case on the way back up, especially a frustrating, meandering slow rise (after that $10 to $1000 moonshot in 2013 which is what everyone is lusting for), as pessimism causes people to find any excuse to give as to why "that shit still isn't ready for prime time":
...
Several crypto investors have complained to me about the (miners) wrangling over Blockstream's changes to Bitcoin, and even the potential technical clusterfuck of Lightning Networks.
This to me is indicative of the time to buy with both fists...
Here is my one mistake recently, which I also had cautioned everyone that it was only a theory and could end up being wrong. And those who sold gold at mid-$1300s and bought Bitcoin in the mid-$600s as I advised in November, are smiling now:
Those who have followed me over the years know that I have made some prescient predictions such as the Bitcoin crash from $1000, even the collapse to $150, and even the precise timing and $320 top of the bounce before the current one. In addition the following silver prediction I made:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html
I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits. I had explained my reasoning in the past and the current indicators are:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html
I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits. I had explained my reasoning in the past and the current indicators are:
I was wrong and here is my record:
Please remind how your prediction from last year of BTC@150 and gold@800 has turned out?
Don't forget my published prediction of the silver move from $22 to $48, then back down to $25 many months before it happened in 2011 (and did you know that I got fucked over in the Philippines not enabling me to profit on my prediction! If I had my investment in an ETF, my sell order at the peak and short would have been honored! Not to mention that most of my metal was stolen by the only vault provider in Manila you jack ass, and there is no way to sue because they refuse to give accurate accounting!):
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html
Btw, I correctly predicted the low of Bitcoin at $150 first time, and way before it happened. I predicted the fall from the $600s to $300s, and the $150 low. I thought it would deadcat bounce and then go to lower lows, because...
In fact, I mentioned it day before yesterday:
My mistake was assuming BTC was correlated to gold, even though Armstrong never wrote that. That was my mistake, not Armstrong's. I realize now that BTC is correlated to safe haven liquidity same as the dollar and USA stocks.
The gold to $850 is still on the table. Nothing with that has changed. As predicted, the dollar and USA stocks went up and the pound crashed towards parity as predicted. This is why gold is back down in the $1200s, on its way probably to $1050 again and lower (we might get a few more deadcat bounces along the way).
Sorry dollar up, gold down. That has not changed.
My mistake was assuming BTC was correlated to gold as a tinfoil hat asset. Because Satoshi even pitched BTC as gold in his whitepaper. And I know many of early adopters in BTC came from being tinfoil hats (including myself and Bitcoin millionaire rpietila). Btw, I had more silver than rpietila and had it not been for my problem in 2012 with my health and family breakup then I would have been poised to invest $100,000 in BTC at $10 in January 2013. I told rpietila to go ahead, but I told him I had been destroyed by events in 2012 and couldn't follow him. That is fate. But my destiny is not yet complete.
Any way, back to the issue at hand, you should remember that in this thread, I told everyone numerous times that it was my theory that BTC might be correlated to gold, but that I wasn't sure and that I could be wrong. And so I was wrong, but I also admitted at the time that I wasn't sure.