Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I built a spreadsheet to play around with formalizing these parameters a few years back.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jv97ERhahE7pP5xAVIXtHEE89Ew4CHiz7imtwsYw8zg/edit#gid=4 (Make a private copy before entering your own values.)
Cool. I played around with a similar google spreadsheet a while back. Yours looks a whole lot more polished than mine
Mine started out as my own modification of the Sane and Simple Bitcoin Savings Plan. Conceptually, right now, my idea would be to create a bot that does the following: whenever X bitcoin is sold at price P for D dollars, create a list of buy orders spread out over a wide price range which, when totaled, would use the entirety of the D dollars to buy back X + a little extra bitcoin. Example: if the algorithm sells 1 btc at $1000, it automatically places buy orders for $200 worth of bitcoin at prices $900, $800, $700, $600, and $500. If the price falls all the way to $500, then you will have used up the entire $1000 to buy back bitcoin at a cheaper price. You can make it as granular as you think the bot and the system can handle. The interesting problem becomes: what is the ideal way to distribute the buybacks? The answer should be determined by what you expect the volatility to be, so that you can maximize how much you profit from volatility. If there is zero volatility (steady rise to the moon), you're basically just implementing the SSS.
One other thing: whenever you buy bitcoin, your bot should do the same thing in reverse, i.e. it should create a spectrum of price points where you sell it all back, but at higher prices. From an algorithmic standpoint, just flip the BTC/USD pair and treat buying btc as if you are selling USD.
Actually, this is a variation of what I do too, but mine is manually rather than using a bot, and my increments are smaller. I was thinking that someday, when my portfolio gets further into the green, I will likely cause the ranges (increments) to be a hell-of-a-lot larger in order to not trade smaller swings. However, I am thinking that currently, I am still in a kind of obsessive accumulation phase and also a kind of preservation of value phase - but if the overall value goes quite a bit more in the green, then there will be less pressure to either accumulate or to preserve value because the whole holdings will be a lot better diversified (or some profits taken off the table and maybe diversified in other assets that will have varying performance expectations.. and maybe even less volatile expectations that compliment expected performance of other assets)...
For example, my thinking has changed a bit when my profits were in the red by 65% in early 2015 and in early 2016, they were kind of floating in the break even territory and today they are floating in a 145% profits territory. I think that my thinking will also change a little bit (at least get tweaked a bit) if my profits were to go into the 300% territory or even approaching something seemingly outrageous like 1,000% profits. And, my BTC portfolio and profits level does best if prices are going up; however, the plan also seems to increase profit levels by taking advantage of volatility, so accordingly, profits level can still go up, even if prices do not go up as much as had been expected to achieve a similar level of percentage profits return.