Bitcoin hasn't been here for 10 years, so basically, according to your definition of a long-term holder there is no one fitting in that category, and so none of them possess at least a single satoshi

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You made a mistake. I mean how many holders have been buying in over the last few years with the intentions to hold for 10+ years.
Frank Lefty Rosenthal Signing Out.
The clear answer for you.
There is no such definite answer. Excepting use the formula won't be guarantee will give 100 accuracies.
Because a lot of the new holders were coming in this year.
Assuming they are want hold their bitcoin over 10 years and that's no sense just hold a little of bitcoin amount.