Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious
by
iamnotback
on 07/01/2017, 21:11:42 UTC
It is not certain, but I think Bitcoin is on a technological adoption curve and is not related to what is going on in the general macro economy.

Thus I expect the accelerated trajectory to hold an we will be back above $1000 before April and new ATHs before summer.

If my thesis is correct, the low of this correction should be above $800.

However, miscreanity may be correct and we may form another cup & handle similar to the Bitfinex correction, which might bring the low to $700 above the bottom upchannel support line with a much longer duration before making new highs. This would be especially true if we get any rumor out of China or India regulating Bitcoin further for capital controls. I don't expect it since Bitcoin is such an irrelevant small market cap, but Armstrong seems to think otherwise (yet he is not a Bitcoin expert and is always harping on this end of cash theme):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/bitcoin-what-next/

In any case, I very much doubt that we rapidly move back to $1100 and this is healthy so the bull market remains intact for a longer period.

Also we will probably get a short-term bounce at some point during this correction. So we might move back up to say the $950 - $1000 level at some point in the near-term.