Nope. It's correct.
When you find a block, you've ... found a block already.
In the first case, there's no requirements on finding the first block ... it's just some time in the future.

Edit: to avoid littering the thread with garbage again:

I'll step off the big numbers and give an example with smaller numbers.
We'll use 2 instead of 3 ...

What are the chances that a 1% pool will find 2 blocks in a row.
1/100

Why? Coz the assumption is that you can find one block.

Once you've found one block you have specified something about finding a second block ... "It's in a row"
i.e. "block 2" is the next block after "block 1"
We didn't specify anything about "block 1", except the assumption that we can find a block.

So this leads to the fact that, if we can find a block, then the probability of finding a block is ... 1
Now there's a minor adjustment to that:
We may not find a block.
However, since we've effectively been given infinite time to find a block, the probability is 'almost 1'
So for the purpose of the question, it's assumed to be ... 1

So the chances of finding 2 blocks in a row is 1 x 1/100 = 1/100

Next:
What are the chances that a 3% pool will find 2 blocks in a row.
3/100 or 1/33.333...


Lets pretend I don't know what I'm talking about
1/33.333... x 1/33.333... = 1/1111.111...

So that would say we really should have only maybe found 2 in a row, about once or twice, maybe three times if we were quite lucky.

Checking the history of the pool ... OMG ... we've done it ... lotsa times! Not once or twice or thrice.

To be exact it's ...  40 times!



Ego: something is wrong ... ah it's this:
"Lets pretend I don't know what I'm talking about
1/33.333... x 1/33.333... = 1/1111.111..."