Anyway, ultimately this will be decided by Gavin and so far he's been saying he wants to raise the block size limit.
I'd say ultimately it's the main services (MtGox, Bitpay, BitInstant, BitcoinStore, WalletBit, Silk Road etc) that will decide. If they all stay at the same side of the fork, that will likely be the side that "wins", regardless of Gavin or even miners' will (most miners would just follow the money).
Doubtful, in practice the miners will decide. However, a "suggestion" by Gavin (and more to the point an update to the reference client) would be a very strong push, as would a suggestion by large users of bitcoin.
In fact, have any pool owners stated what their opinion is?