This argument doesn't work, you're working backwards from the premise that miners need to maintain their current income to be profitable.
The argument is attempting to determine when the fees market becomes functional.
There is an argument that this is worrying about nothing because the block reward will maintain the network for many years
without significant fees. Based upon the high fx rate this argument looks better by the day! Trying to force fees to match the block reward might be a task for the next decade, and counterproductive today. The risk remains from dead puppy transaction sources which would need to be throttled directly somehow, as the fees market won't do it.