Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!
by
r0ach
on 19/01/2017, 03:39:51 UTC
MatTheMat, you should visit the Armstrong thread in economics section.  I'm not a fan of him, but it's the only thread where actual economic discussion goes on.  My general stance is that gold should currently be around $2200 even in their rigged system, but they've rigged it down even further to try and support NIRP/ZIRP.  Silver would probably hit around $75 in that gold run.  As for stocks, the stock markets are almost entirely a function of debt levels.  If the debt stopped increasing for instance, I would see a DOW drop to something like 6000 with a brief stop around 10k on the way.

Other interesting stuff:

The r0ach report vol 5: If there's any plausible conspiracy involving silver and bitcoin, this is it

https://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/if-there-s-any-plausible-conspiracy-involving-silver-and-bitcoin-this-is-it

The r0ach report vol 6: Why I don't buy platinum

https://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-vol-6-why-i-don-t-buy-platinum


r0ach DOW forecast

I wouldn't touch the stock market right now with someone else's money, let alone my own.  We will either have some form of super inflation or the DOW is gonna bring the pain in losses soon.  Take the following chart for instance.  Each time margin debt went parabolic, it then crashed the DOW to BELOW where it originally went parabolic from.  This means DOW is going to have a mega crash down to something like 6k, while taking a brief rest around 10k on the way (this chart is old and it looks much worse now):



The only way out of that is to print a metric fuck ton of money to inflate the bubble even higher.  You also have a comical relationship in the following pictures.  Trump would likely have to increase debt levels by somewhere between 10-20 trillion to keep this thing afloat, which would then send interest rates to pluto and have the entire world on fire with unserviceable debt.  We truly are at the endgame of the debt based scam currency here (the Clinton disparity is entirely dotcom accounting fraud):






r0ach energy forecast:

When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.  They never jump into a higher tier of complexity.  Complex systems also tend to require exponential resource (energy) curves.  Peak conventional crude oil already happened in 2004.  Peak working age demographic already occurred in every nation that matters.

Wealth comes from people doing work in the real world, not shuffling around papers.  That work is either done from things like burning fuel to do the work for you, or humans physically doing it themselves.  With both working age demographic and energy output declining, people will be spending more time and effort doing work for the basic necessities and nobody is going to be overpaying people for shuffling numbers on a computer unless it involves something to do with solving the energy problem.

"Excess" energy is why a day's wage in Rome was a small amount of silver and why it's a larger amount of silver now.  Instead of humans having to dig it up, the work was being done for free by machines, thus devaluing it's worth.  But, the time of arbitraging "free" energy into depleting all resources like metals as fast as possible is over now (that and the fact peak metals is occurring regardless the state of energy).  Unless fusion power solves all these problems (not likely because fusion is actually low EROI), then we already hit peak energy, peak cheap metals, peak cheap food, and this energy arbitrage scheme is ending, possibly in a Seneca cliff.





Here's one example of such a chart.  Remember that all wealth is based on energy output since abundance is really just machines burning fossil fuels to do work for you instead of you doing it.  In the gas sector, the high energy yielding conventional stuff is all cratering, so all they did was grab more of the lower return on investment stuff to try and compensate (same thing in the oil market).  So, as this cycle continues, your civilization's wealth continues to decrease until you get to the point of borderline thermodynamic collapse if it uses as much energy to drive the shale oil to market as it does to extract it (and shale is low return on investment).

So, I hate to rain on your parade, but there is no so called knowledge age unless there's some type of enormous energy breakthrough.  Russian govt energy analysts see things getting really bad by around 2020 and say there is no technological solution in sight.  There is no coming out on the other side of the monetary reset with some type of "utopia".  In fact, one of the reasons it's currently crashing is because it relies on infinite growth and the energy situation prevents that.