You're mostly right. Except there's money to be made during mad dips with the obligatory bounce back (or at the least increasing BTC count even if dollar value diminishes). But yes, day trading (without borrowing aka margin) and with .25% fees .... it's hard to consistently increase money value and BTC count.
I agree with you about attempting to protect yourself from some of the price volatility, but I don't agree with the strategy that you seem to be suggesting, which is to sell when you see (or believe) that the price is going to go down - you are going to get screwed too many times if you attempt to time that and to figure that out.
The safer strategy is to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down, and part of the trick is figuring out increments and amounts in order that you neither run out of BTC to sell or money to buy with if the price tanks.
I have been employing such a strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up, and it seems to work pretty well.
A couple more things: 1) I don't think that it is a good idea to employ the selling part of the formula until you have figured out your accumulation targets and attempt to sufficiently accumulate before selling any BTC and 2) it is also a good idea to attempt to figure out various BTC/fiat ratios that you want to attempt to maintain and follow at certain price points. Of course, you can have some flexibility, but you should also try to have a plan or an outline, too so that you can attempt to stay within certain predetermined parameters - which is especially important during very high volatility periods, when you don't wanna get nervous and deviate too much from your predetermined plan.
I will try this. Gracias