Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that? It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no? Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop. I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.

why didn´t you just buy those 35%drop coins three months earlier, when they were under $600? don´t you end up with less coins that way?

If you are serious rather than trolling, then maybe I should attempt to respond to your question: however, I am getting the sense that you do not quite understand the concept of incrementalism, and you are just asking to be a pain in the ass while you remain in your continued gambling all or nothing mindset... and also a bit stubborn about your own risky practices... even though they seem to stress you out a bit more than you would like (as I can tell from some of your previous posts)

Let me see if I can address this proposition somewhat...

When you buy and sell incrementally, with the vast majority of your BTC allocated funds, you are not trying to prediction the price direction of the market and therefore, you mechanically apply the incrementalist principles that you have established for yourself and for your own situation. Sure you do not make as much money as those persons who actually go all in and predict the price direction correctly, but an underlying assumption is that it is too difficult and too risky to attempt to predict the price direction, and in the long run incrementalism will pay off more than attempting to predict because when you attempt to engage in price predictions you stand to lose more overall by the times that you predict wrong as compared to the times that you predict correctly.

By the way, I don't completely exclude myself from price prediction practices, but about 90% of my ongoing trading practice is to mechanically stick with incrementalism type principles that are tailored to my situation and to apply those principles fairly strictly.. so I am only playing around with a small portion of my trading funds.. and in the end, my BTC portfolio consistently does quite well, and mostly because I stick largely with incrementalism - even though from time to time, I continue to hone my practices to better tailor to my own personal comfort levels (which likely applies slightly differently with each person who attempts such).