Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that? It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no? Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop. I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.

why didn´t you just buy those 35%drop coins three months earlier, when they were under $600? don´t you end up with less coins that way?

He did end up with less coins, of course. But that is the price he paid for his daily doze of adrenaline by "trading" bitcoins...

When I got into bitcoin, I was not expecting to be a "trader," and I did not even want to engage in such trading activities, and maybe it was a bit naive of me? because I did consider myself someone who buys on the way down and sells on the way up - even though I did not expect to engage in such conduct in such small intervals of price change (or maybe bitcoin's price changes more than I had erroneously expected).

Nonetheless, @Becoin... you seem to be assuming a quite a bit more than what really happens and how matters really play out.

Of course, if the price goes straight up, then I will have fewer coins than what I started with, but the reality of the matter and the reality of bitcoin seems to be that the price goes up and down and up and down, and in the end, over time, I tend to have more coins than what I started with and more or less the same amount of investment.

Let me describe a little bit of specifics in order that maybe you (and other can attempt to relate)... I started buying in late 2013, and I continued to buy through the end of 2014 before I started to feel as if I had accumulated a decent enough stake in bitcoin.. but further since the price did not really go up, I did not feel comfortable or engage in any selling of bitcoin. Further throughout 2015, the price largely floated in the $200s, so by the middle of 2015, I started to devise a plan to divide my bitcoin holdings into 3 portions and to authorize myself to sell within the third that would have had an average cost below my selling cost. So the fact of the matter is that I began to sell bitcoin's at around $250, but overall, in the long term, prices continued to go up and are more or less 4x that price... and I still have about more than 10% more coins than I had with the same amount of investment.. I also have fiat stacked up, too.... so my holdings are considerably more protected than if I only engaged in HODL... So it seems that the price goes up and down and up and down, and my plan tends to accumulate coins...

On the other hand, you are correct that if the price were to go straight up (in a hypothetical world that does not exist and is not very probable to exist - low probability in other words), then I would have fewer coins than what I had started with.