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Comments on SHTF and TEOTWAWKI
This should perhaps be a more extended essay, but I pass along these thoughts as they seem to be not much discussed especially in the whole precious metals vs. cryptos conversation.
Which "investment" is the "best" all depends on what happens. That is such a simple-minded statement, but a neglected thought (and more complex than the statement appears at first glance) in most of these discussions of a SHTF.
It has always been my working thesis that none (let's say very few) of us can know the future. It is too complex, and whatever variables that Armstrong can crunch (and his work appears to be of great value) cannot foresee events caused by the Beijing Butterfly's flapping wings... Imagination and information (which Armstrong has) cannot cover all the bases.
Nonetheless, there are trends that do appear to be unstoppable, or nearly so. iamnotback & Armstrong, IMO, both appear to be correct in their general analyses of trends that look to be very powerful, and even explanatory, in shaping events to come.
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SHTF and TEOTWAWKI are really two separate sets of events (the way I look at them) that overlap. First comments on my take of the theme of SHTF.
A "SHTF" can be as mild as a 2008 stock market crash, which of course was pretty shitty to those who were exposed... But the term SHTF seems to be used more (here) as a bigger event, let's say the most commonly cited SHTF would be a large-scale financial collapse that shuts down many parts and conveniences of modern society, but leaves the infrastructure intact. This set of possibilities would be similar in scale & scope to the Great Depression of the 1930s, in that the electricity stayed on, the factories were left intact (if idle for awhile). A version of this kind of SHTF would likely leave many impoverished (perhaps no credit cards functioning, no access to their bank accounts), but the bulk of our fixed investments (includes bridges, etc.) that provide great societal value would stay intact.
Of course a SHTF would likely, surely even, manifest itself in unpredictable ways. Thus, I try to cover many bases, as I certainly cannot predict how this wrinkle vs, another would turn up...
iamnotback refers to various historical scenarios, for example (ex-Yugoslavia, FerFal's experiences in Argentina) where silver and gold were not used as "money" (perhaps "currency" would be the better term).
This apparently is true. In my own studies of societies in crisis, I have not yet read of one using silver coins as their Medium of Exchange. It always has been the nearest strong currency (US$, the DM) that such societies adopt. We can learn from the experiences of the past...
[I hold a little, not much but some, silver]
You never know, so a small holding of silver makes some sense.
Gold is best used as a Store of Value, but it is unclear if gold's role as the premier store of value will always continue so. In a severe SHTF, gold might only be able to be used:
1) For large transactions (eg, buy a small farm for 20 oz)
2) To preserve wealth through a difficult time (similar to the idea of gold being "insurance")
I also acknowledge iamnotback's comment on use of gold to pay for items in a country like the Philippines, or possible almost anywhere, might lead to missing fingers due to robberies... Use of gold to pay for groceries (etc.) might become rather problematic than is foreseen.
Nonetheless, we can observe the behavior through history of the very wealthy to gain clues as to "what works". The Rothschilds have been exposed to peril on-and-off for centuries. They have invested their very large wealth in castles, vineyards, fine art. They also own a large amount (how much is unknown) of gold. The castles, art and vineyards can all be confiscated in a SHTF, perhaps later to be returned to the descendants of those whose wealth was so taken.
Gold, however, can be hidden...
Crypto(s) have a place in many of these kinds of events.
Note that all larger-scale events mentioned here are "SHTF Scale" events.
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A "TEOTWAWKI" is not just a larger-scale SHTF, in my opinion. While my concept of a TEOTWAWKI is perhaps slightly different than the "consensus opinion", it has guided my thinking in how to think about and prepare for it.
While a SHTF would be comparable to the Great Depression, the scarier TEOTWAWKI is more like McCarthy's The Road, or perhaps Orwell's 1984 would be apt as well.
No electricity. Famine & thirst almost everywhere. Anarchy and chaos (the bad kinds). No modern comforts. Pandemics and violence.
In such, I believe that I would just give up beyond a certain point. Gold would be useless, or nearly so in the worst scenarios...
My characterization of TEOTWAWKI also eliminates cryptos as a valid asset. Sorry, but paper wallets mean nothing in a world of wandering refugees. In these kinds of scenarios, only a water well and guns & ammo count for much. But what happens when the ammunition runs out...?
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In thinking about Doom Porn, I also looks at the probabilities. Various kinds of SHTF, IMO, are more likely than the more horrific TEOTWAWKIs. The impact of the latter is much greater, but the probability is lower.
So, in sum, as we cannot accurately predict the future (we can identify issues and make guesses as to probabilities), I have chosen to diversify my assets (assets in all meanings of the word).
That is why I hold some gold. More than the average HODLER, but gold is not, as iamnotback mentioned in various comments, a panacea. As he also wrote:
"There are no panaceas."