What are the chances of another "China bans bitcoin for the 97th time" story sometime between now and $1242....

High, very high imho. That is press catnip when China does that.
But China isn't present to dump. It's hard to imagine what else they can roll out at this stage. Everywhere else is slowly disconnecting from China. Maybe a few Chinese folks have migrated to Japan for that zero fee fun so they'll have a go there, but not many people elsewhere seem to be paying Japan much attention right now.