Not new to bitcoin have been collecting/trading Bitcoin for a veeeeery long time . I have my self said btc can drop to 500 but thinking bitcoin will drop to 250 is bit of a strech and almost impossible with the market cap. I can not imagine a bad news coming along that will make Bitcoin lose 80%
that's what people thought for a little while in late 2013 then china and gox happened. could something of a similar magnitude happen again? i think the strongest possibility is some sort of fork event. in that case 80% might be optimistic.