It looks like it's very much up in the air as to whether it will be approved or not. That is, the SEC doesn't know, let alone the rest of us.

They are giving it a serious look, which I view as long term bullish either way. It means that Bitcoin is growing up, and an ETF in one form or another will likely come to fruition soon. At the very least, the SEC seems to be trying to make it work, while still remaining careful. In fact, if they reject this one, it will probably be for a valid reason within the ETF itself, rather than due to any flippant or hostile attitudes toward Bitcoin. I've heard the case that the Winkle ETF may not properly handle the hard fork, so if something like that causes the SEC to balk, that's actually good for us.