even at 1 block a week average he could go several months without a block easily. so don't be financially responsible

start small and join a pool, grow with experience - that is a much better way for a small miner. if you start investing 200k with no knowledge of details you will get burned.
I'm still not sure what kind of scratch he can actually raise. I'm setting the bar reasonably high to see how comfortable he is getting in at that price. Clearly if we will be more successful mining to a pool, we will do that.