Even if it gets rejected and I believe it WILL get rejected, I think they price might stay up.
Totally exspected, due to halving effects. If it has been fivehundreds before halving, you can experience 2x of that afterwards.
The price doesn't have to double after halving, it is about buyers and sellers. Take the first halving for example.
Remember also that with each halving there is 50% less coins left to be mined. That means more coins in the circulation and presumably more hands that want to dump it, if the price to sell is attractive. That has to be compensated by more new money flowing in, otherwise the price will decline.
The first has been more influenced by emission rate, since there had not been millions of BTCs floating around. For a currency that got dubbed beeing deflationary by nature the inflation has been horrendous high.
Today one needs a way bigger lever to move this big mass of a $18,000,000,000 Marketcap. Only the blocksize debate could mess with it, not a single trading entity. If Segwit fails, BU stuck, people loosing patience perhaps.
That is exactly why the price has absolutely no conection (or very little) to halving. Halving may be used as a an excuse to pump the coin, but in the long run, it is as you wrote: you have more coins in circulation and thus you need each time more new money flowing in, in order to keep it going.