It seems analysts don't think it will pass, but investors do.
I've been reading about it for a while now and about ETF's in general and nothing I've read has explained exactly why the SEC would not approve it.
Why wouldn't it pass?
nobody can tell you if it will pass or not unless they are an insider with secret information but then again why would they tell you about it! and analysts say these things because it is their job to do so, they just make guesses nothing more.
one thing is for sure, there will be some effects on the price but don't expect miracles.