Maybe there is chance it will happen in the first place but anytime soon, no it will not be even close to soon.
It would take many years to achieve this and maybe it will even never happen.
I agree with your second option that it might won't never happen, because people believe in USD, and the bonding is more strong. BTC is very good, but replacing USD seems quite tough and nearly impossible.
Fiat currencies can only be replaced by their respective governments. Bitcoin can't do anything without their support in that regard. But I honestly don't even want Bitcoin to replace whatever fiat currency. I like how Bitcoin as alternative solution is doing nearly everything perfectly fine already. Nearly perfect because it's no secret that the scaling aspect is what keeps certain people (me included) looking with great joy at the current increase, but at the same time we know something needs to be done to increase the block size.