I entirely agree. This is always the same law: predictions are difficult if they concern the future. It is the crypto equivalent of Malkiel's thesis, that there's no "smart investor" that *systematically* can outsmart the market, and that in the long run, monkeys playing on the stock market do just as well as hedge fund managers.
But of course, on every time slice, there are lottery winners, who think they have something special.
Well not in the small of uniqueness, but as I presume you know, there are ordered repeating patterns in chaos on the large aggregate perspective, i.e. the Sun rises every day and humans have on the average a consistent lifespan and age of maturation. I believe Martin Armstrong taps into this order to increase his odds of being correct about the future macro environment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor#Strange_attractor