It has taken me a LONG TIME to really do a thorough analysis of bitcoin because there are just far too many variables, but there it is.
To what extent does your analysis rest on the assertion that bitcoin can
... arbitrarily be changed by some guy on a random whim when he wakes up in the morning...
?
Because that is really not a fair summary of the situation. Which I am sure you know without me telling you. But I wonder whether your analysis is fully settled (in your own mind) ...