Maybe there is chance it will happen in the first place but anytime soon, no it will not be even close to soon.
It would take many years to achieve this and maybe it will even never happen.
I agree with your second option that it might won't never happen, because people believe in USD, and the bonding is more strong. BTC is very good, but replacing USD seems quite tough and nearly impossible.
otherwise it will be very difficult for bitcoin to replace a country's currency. because the government certainly would never do that
bitcoin will only be an option for the world community that's what I see