Maybe there is chance it will happen in the first place but anytime soon, no it will not be even close to soon.
It would take many years to achieve this and maybe it will even never happen.
I agree with your second option that it might won't never happen, because people believe in USD, and the bonding is more strong. BTC is very good, but replacing USD seems quite tough and nearly impossible.
The people are using dollar to fill his daily life and bitcoin will never replace the dollar if the bitcoin can't fell the role of the dollar right now. and I think it will never be happening in the future. crypto is good alternative currency.