We are now 3+ hours into the Mtgox 12 hour trading outage and I'm sure everyone is wondering where the price will go when trading resumes.

I think the price will rise and here's why:

If you are anxious to SELL right at this moment; you can open an account with another exchange right away, transfer your coin within an hour and sell them.

If you are anxious to BUY right at this moment; you can open an account with another exchange, but due to the delays in transferring fiat you have no ability to get your funds into that account within the 12 hour window.

Also, presumably, there is a lot of fiat tied up in Mtgox accounts during the outage that is/was intended to be used to buy more coin.

The conclusion being that the ability to buy during the outage is limited whereas the ability to sell is not.

If the above reasoning is accurate, then it seems to me that buying pressure is now suppressed. When trading resumes, that released pressure should push the price higher.

Thoughts?