What would make sense for the CIA to arrest Satoshi? He has no influence on the Bitcoin development anymore. Bitcoin is open source. It would only make sense if he would develop bitcoin alone and the source code would not be open.
To answer your question: We do not know and we will probably never know.
As I have discussed, people are prone to want to listen to leaders, and satoshi is the ultimate "bitcoin figure", it would have obviously an impact on what people think of bitcoin.
If satoshi said "let's do X about the blocksize thing", im sure a lot of people would blindly follow. This is how humans work.