Some thoughts:

Bitcoin is very different from other markets in that it never sleeps. Someone that slept through the crash would wake up to find his assets have halved in price; someone that slept through the cooldown announcement would not have had time to move their funds. When we picture the typical hotshot Wall St broker who works 90 hours a week and does coke on the job, even they sleep. With Bitcoin, you snooze, you lose. For the first time (maybe ever) we actually have an interesting situation: the Bitcoin market (i.e. Mt.Gox) is about to "open", following some serious events in the past 24 hours, and some movement in other markets. The opening bell will ring, and then nobody knows what is going to happen. This is pretty much how all markets work. With Bitcoin, we have always enjoyed the luxury of "temporal liquidity", i.e. there is never any spring-loading of big sales in anticipation of a certain time point. Right now this is exactly what is happening. Everyone in the Bitcoin world is planning their move right now (even if that move is to do nothing at all).

So what will happen to the price? For sure it will move violently in all directions. There is money to be made over the next 48 hours, if that is what you are in the game for. Beyond sentiment, speculation and conspiracy theories, I believe there are two opposing theories to consider:

1) UP: Those who were holding Bitcoin and wanted to sell could have easily moved their Bitcoin to another exchange and done so (assuming it's less than their nominal withdrawal limit). And this is exactly what happened, with the price now somewhere around 50-70 USD. However, those who were holding fiat and wanted to buy are still holding fiat and still want to buy. This suggests that buying pressure will outweigh selling pressure significantly after the "opening bell".

2) DOWN: With the price at other exchanges now half of that at Mt.Gox there is bound to be a lot of "pre-meditated panic selling". This would be coming from (a) traders who hold too much Bitcoin to withdraw to another exchange ("big traders" with six-figure amounts), (b) traders who are not aware of other exchanges, or for whatever reason won't use them (e.g. newbies, your mom who took out a loan to buy BTC, etc.), (c) traders who already withdrew their daily limit from Mt.Gox and want to sell at as high a price as possible between 123 USD and the current market aggregate. This suggests that A LOT of market sells will be made at 02:00 UTC, driving the price way down, even if for just a brief period. Because the orders are market orders, there is no opportunity to react to the market. These sells will erupt like one huge market price dump, and inevitably push the price way below the current market aggregate.

What is my pure speculation on this? I think it will go as low as 20, before rebounding to 100+. I really believe the market dump is going to be HUGE, and I think the buys will be more calculated. A lot of people will probably wait to see how low it goes before trying to get back in.

Thoughts?