Re: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious
The chances of BTC going below $1000 are rapidly dwindling. We're currently at the top of the red channel from my prior posts, and if we exceed $1288-1290 for more than a day it's very likely the trend will continue.
Eventually we may have to retest $1000-1100 but that's likely to be short-lived and sometime around Armstrong's call to beware of April. As of now I still see only the beginning of an acceleration in trend. If we hold above $1265, I think it will be more of a pause in trend than a correction. It still seems that $1300-1500 is being reached for. To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.
Eventually we may have to retest $1000-1100 but that's likely to be short-lived and sometime around Armstrong's call to beware of April. As of now I still see only the beginning of an acceleration in trend. If we hold above $1265, I think it will be more of a pause in trend than a correction. It still seems that $1300-1500 is being reached for. To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.
As we saw $1265 was broken to the downside and $1000-1100 was tested, for which my time frame was obviously incorrect. Additionally, $1300 has been breached.
In the chart below, the original channel from the August 2015 low is the shaded area with blue dotted top line; the first expanded channel is marked by the blue line from about 920-1080; the second expanded channel is the green line with dark green dashed mid-point; the accelerated channel is shown by the red lines, with purple dashed mid-point.
Projection lines are the thin blue line from the low of January 12th through the low of January 31st, and the bold blue line from the August 2015 low through the June 2016 high.
Note the range today extended both below the mid-point (purple dotted line) of the accelerated channel (red lines) as well as above the high. This is present on all exchanges, so is not a unique glitch but probably due to low volumes.
Very important - we're still above the expanded channel (green) and if it remains that way over the weekend, it will become support. Additionally, price has reached up to the bold projection line.
The resistance range I'm looking at is $1270-1290. Breaking above that on more than a spike is a good indication that there is further upside.
We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.
I am still uncertain whether there will be a liquidation event in Europe around that time frame. If so, it may cause another sharp correction before continuing higher.