For the millionth time in these forums. The price of BTC has absolutely nothing to do with the price of mining. The difficulty will adjust towards making mining a break-even venture. The difficulty rate lags the price due to the time it takes to bring miners on and offline. The price is solely determined by supply and demand.
You contradicted yourself in your own post... Let me help you out... In the PAST, the value of BTC has moved towards the point of making mining a break even venture as the difficulty level adjusts. Like every broker will tell you though, past performance is no guarantee future results.
ASIC mining hardware is a major disruption in the mining community. It is vastly out performing widely available, consumer-level hardware. It is very expensive and only useful to mine bitcoins. It is currently concentrating the new found wealth in the hands of very few people. The expense and single, functioned nature of the mining equipment is quite unique in bitcoin history. It may take quite some time for this situation to stabilize.
While I can agree with your final "supply and demand" statement, those concepts trivialize all the chaos and complexity underneath to such a degree it's pathetic. Why not just take the last step and say the price is solely determined by economics?