It's all about speculations in the end, as we never know when the whales drops their coins or when a new persons invest a ton of coins without our knowledge.
However, follow forums, media, and the grafs can make a bit of clues. Other than that, all is speculations.

But it really needs a lot of the analyzation. The sensitivity of the bitcoin market by the news of bitcoin make the rate will be relying on the news itself. And some of another important aspect. It's not easy