Yes. You seem to be giving considerably greater odds to the possibility of a fork than me.
But, sure, I could see some of the passionate nutjobs attempting to pull such a trigger and even pulling such a trigger way too prematurely.
the chain split is very likely at this point because both sides seem to have = pull but if no one ever "pulls the trigger" we're doomed.
at this point the only real question is how bad is it gonna be 50/50 being worst case 95/5 best case