Ok, I'm barely out of the newbie stage on these forums but I have not yet seen this matter discussed so here is a poll for crowd sourcing some kind of estimate.

What I hear about bubbles in general is that they have two powerful negative effects on the market:

1: Lots of negative press and ambient negativity.
2: Painful experience which scares buyers away from future involvement.

There are surely further effects beyond these but I'm no expert in the matter so I'll ignore such details.

If I look at my own surroundings I personally know six people who have joined the Bitcoin system. Out of the 6 there is one who bought in above 70, four of them bought in at an average between 20 and 65 and the last one still has his fiat stuck in transit from the bank towards the exchange.

If this poll manages to aggregate a decent guesstimate for the number of hurt individuals we might get an idea about how long it will take to replace all of them with new people. To do this we'll also need to know some other data points such as changes of market growth and purchasing power but that can be done elsewhere.

Cheers!

EDIT: If you feel like it, please describe briefly how you calculated your estimate. It would be enlightening information. :-)