Post
Topic
Board Service Discussion
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
by
dooglus
on 13/04/2013, 00:02:09 UTC
Having checked, there really are over 15000 bets pending settlement, but most of them are below the minimum bet.  I didn't used to count those, but recently accidentally started counting them.

I'll re-ran the script and had it ignore bets under the minimum, and:

"Total of 35 bets unaccounted for."

So that 15k number was including rejected bets.  Oops!

Here's an updated report with data from the most recent blocks:

Quote
Total of 50 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-12 05:01pm (up to block 231055)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   125289 |       3 (0.00002) |  123375 |    1911 |    1540.22 |    3842.18 |   145.08 |  -2301.95 | 249.455
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     8498 |       0 (0.00000) |    7944 |     554 |     128.55 |       0.23 |    22.24 |    128.32 |   0.181
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9724 |       1 (0.00011) |    9247 |     476 |     146.56 |     160.15 |    14.55 |    -13.59 | 109.273
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19173 |       5 (0.00027) |   18674 |     494 |     396.91 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -35.92 | 109.052
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20703 |       3 (0.00015) |   20235 |     465 |     705.20 |     245.96 |    22.14 |    459.23 |  34.879
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    26397 |      11 (0.00042) |   25968 |     418 |    1470.08 |    1538.14 |     1.46 |    -68.05 | 104.629
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29009 |      35 (0.00123) |   28468 |     506 |    2108.76 |    1740.00 |   116.93 |    368.75 |  82.513
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21161 |      38 (0.00184) |   20642 |     481 |    2393.93 |    1562.96 |    48.45 |    830.97 |  65.288
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26284 |     114 (0.00441) |   25762 |     408 |    6009.98 |    8656.18 |    13.26 |  -2646.20 | 144.030
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37827 |     300 (0.00809) |   36790 |     737 |    8340.45 |    6909.70 |    10.15 |   1430.75 |  82.846
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   136146 |    2063 (0.01522) |  133506 |     577 |   41339.52 |   36418.77 |     2.27 |   4920.75 |  88.097
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25779 |     589 (0.02318) |   24819 |     371 |    7969.63 |    8562.65 |    15.13 |   -593.01 | 107.441
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86849 |    2653 (0.03069) |   83789 |     407 |   41132.39 |   36727.29 |     9.40 |   4405.10 |  89.290
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30521 |    1395 (0.04643) |   28647 |     479 |    9822.75 |   10641.67 |    25.37 |   -818.91 | 108.337
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36508 |    2238 (0.06199) |   33864 |     406 |    7737.33 |    7525.75 |    31.41 |    211.57 |  97.266
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51626 |    4697 (0.09187) |   46427 |     502 |   16851.83 |   18463.96 |     7.47 |  -1612.13 | 109.567
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   200471 |   24508 (0.12259) |  175411 |     552 |   96575.62 |   95439.60 |   100.65 |   1136.02 |  98.824
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   112003 |   20413 (0.18325) |   90981 |     609 |  175868.73 |  176843.40 |  3315.13 |   -974.66 | 100.554
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   277585 |   67656 (0.24429) |  209295 |     634 |  373912.85 |  360285.16 |  2322.72 |  13627.69 |  96.355
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   269993 |   99045 (0.36771) |  170313 |     635 |  591873.36 |  583076.87 |  1013.41 |   8796.49 |  98.514
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1185389 |  577638 (0.48804) |  605948 |    1803 |  908206.39 |  890012.68 |  2925.51 |  18193.71 |  97.997
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   669868 |  333954 (0.49956) |  334544 |    1370 |  684831.19 |  667818.36 |  6522.15 |  17012.83 |  97.516
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   383543 |  281386 (0.73515) |  101372 |     785 |  308665.36 |  301499.77 |  6172.43 |   7165.58 |  97.679
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86727 |   68381 (0.79405) |   17736 |     610 |   64771.05 |   63335.84 |  1187.87 |   1435.20 |  97.784
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    78275 |   66492 (0.85682) |   11111 |     672 |   81816.99 |   81030.58 |   400.88 |    786.40 |  99.039
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   123863 |  112813 (0.91607) |   10336 |     714 |   75298.70 |   74197.17 |     1.21 |   1101.52 |  98.537
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20366 |   18558 (0.97952) |     388 |    1420 |   24873.48 |   24456.07 |   240.67 |    417.41 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3978956 | 1630398           | 2329856 |   18702 |  822457.73 |  807902.60 |   291.97 |  14555.13 |  98.230
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120621 |   54591           |   65736 |     294 | 2712330.20 | 2653521.45 | 24406.21 |  58808.75 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4099577 | 1684989           | 2395592 |   18996 | 3534787.94 | 3461424.05 | 24698.18 |  73363.88 |  97.925
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73363.88985134 BTC (2.075%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3316.70557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70047.18427634 BTC (1.982%)
Pending Liabilities:           43.74421794 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70003.44005840 BTC (1.980%)
Profit This Month:           2160.51349078 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13154500  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7521380  (57.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5727.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3101.6  (54.2%)