Perhaps you haven't noticed that before I made my shocking math post, the Bitcoin price was declining, since I made my post then the BTC price has risen 5% and
miner support for BU has declined. I think the market is paying attention and that is why I am following up with more explanation (when I should be sleeping instead because it is 2:30am where I am and I am on medications).
You *really* believe that ?
First of all, nobody believes really that BU will activate, no ? Of course 1 MB blocs are with us for ever, and BU only serves to keep Segwit away. No miner in his right mind would push BU for real. So I don't see how your analysis of why BU would be bad for miners, would have the slightest bit of influence, as BU won't happen. Miners never intended that. They always knew it was bad for them. The god-given present of 1MB blocks, put in for reason or by clumsy mistake, is not going to be wasted.
You also see this, BTW, because in your examples you talk about network delay effects. But as I pointed out, these only start making an effect on mining if the network delays become not negligible to the mining time taken to obtain a bloc. We are talking about hundreds of GB blocs here, because we are talking about average bloc finding times of ten minutes. If you have several GB/s links (which, as a miner, is perfectly affordable), you'd need to make spam blocs of tens or hundreds of GB before your network delay effects start playing a role. That's not reasonable.
So before unlimited blocs start making the slightest bit of advantage for a cartel of miners, they would have lost out because of the low fees that a relaxed fee market would bring.
No, miners like small blocs with hard limits. They are not going to throw away that great gift from Satoshi.