No, "when" would be hard to predict. I believe miners will have a tendency to become fickle once BU reaches almost 50%. They realize that the future of Bitcoin is hanging in the balance and as humans we usually do not want to break the status quo. I am not 100% sure but maybe one of the mining pools could back track and support Core again.
a poison pill will do it - i guarantee it -
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1833046.0