Why would he be willing to do a 1 for 1 trade?
Loaded is offering much better terms for a BU supporter. He says:
No split, no transaction. If there is a split, I'd love to double up.
while the terms on bitfinex mean you lose your money if there's no split. Since it's highly unlikely there's going to be a split, the bitfinex trade is pretty insanely risky even for a BU believer
Yes there is a risk of no split (or that core will change the code in their repository after a split to be compatible with BU) on bitfinex, however I don't think that accounts for all of the discrepancy in price.
The executives at the various exchanges seem to believe that BU initiating a HF to be increasingly possible. The
recently found blocks are pointing to momentum for BU.
I cannot predict the future, however I would not write off the possibility of a fork, as doing so would be reckless.
This kind of deal would be nearly impossible for either party to enforce, and there is the possibility that both parties would not even have the potential to be able fulfill their obligations in the event of a split because the loosing chain is likely to quickly die off