From my perspective at least, this is not a bet, it's a business transaction. My motivations are 90% profit and 10% because I do not foresee BU as it exists today succeeding with the lack of code review and still unsolved EC divergence. Nothing prevents a miner from switching to the Core chain and orphaning the entire BU chain if it becomes profitable to do so.
As for big vs small, I supported 2MB last year when there was no working implementation of LN. Today SegWit + LN appears to be ready to go. I believe that the BU miners are not looking at the bigger picture. On chain fees can continue to rise even while a large number of transactions move to LN. There is no issue paying a $10 fee to open a reusable channel, while the same fee for a single transaction is extreme. SW already offers 2MB, the only difference seems to be where the signatures are stored.
Let me ask you a question just to satisfy my own curiosity and discover the reason for your recent "business transaction" proposition to Ver. You are "loaded". I assume you live in a beautiful home with all the modern appointments. Surely you must have fine automobiles at your disposal and take worldwide vacations with the same frequency that other people change their underwear. In essence, you want for nothing. Your stake in the "business transaction" you're proposing is worth upwards of $60 million. With that kind of money, why would you not simply cash out, retire, and enjoy everything the world has to offer? Instead, you leverage your millions to prove a point? I don't get it.