Would just 'justify' a BU fork in my view.....thus price of $200 buck coin....would both chains recover with that 'brand name of bitcoin' hit

Just saying if it was that easy ...why ask for 95% activation....for seg witness in the first place..just feel I missing the other shoe to fall ..seems too easy
(hope I am wrong however)
No. Practically almost the whole economy and a super majority of users are supporting Segwit (have implemented/are testing/have planned an implementation of Segwit). This is only the Jihan & Ver cartel blocking consensus from forming. They can create their worthless fork, nobody wants it. Segwit is activating, with or without them.
Once this issue has been taken care of, I expect the trust & positive bull trend to continue. If everything ends up being *okay*, I expect the price above $2k in the months post activation. A lot of people are just uninformed about the real benefits of Segwit (capacity aside). This is primarily due to the propaganda lies, as found on r/btc.