Hashing power:
40% for BU
30% for SW
30% undecided.
But.
BIP168 is coming, so lets look on nodes:
90% Core
10% BU
Lets guess, what will happen when 168 activate in November?

If 168 is USER activated soft fork, and majority of USERS want cheap and fast transactions ON CHAIN, is IS possible to make UAHF and raise block size.
I know, that scaling on chain is impossible, bus as I mention earlier - segwit goodies need time to be up and running, block size works instantly.

@Lauda, blocks are NOT verified as whole at one time. Maybe you forget, that every transaction that is received by node is verified on delivery. New block is announced as header (one hash to verify POW) and hashes of transactions included in it - node just need to verify gentx and pull/verify only MISSING transactions. In other words: if node is online and collecting transactions, even 15MB block can be verified in second, because node know and have verified transactions from block.