You maybe misunderstand how I value it.  As with all mining securities I'm effectively valuing them in USD then converting it into BTC at the current exchange-rate.

Put simply I value them at the answer to the question:

"If I were to purchase hardware with hashing power equal to what the company has, then split that across the number of outstanding shares they have, what would the result be?"

Then adjust it up (or down) if there's factors that tend to make the company a better (or worse) investment than most - which, in my view, would be upwards for Cognitive.

The answer to that question varies massively with the exchange-rate - i.e. it falls a ton when BTC rises a lot vs USD.   Which is, of course, a large part of the reason why historically few mining companies have ended up making a profit (for investors).

With pre-orders then the base for valuation is what it would cost now to pre-order the same (or equivalent).  Adjusted upward to compensate for the earlier delivery existing pre-orders can expect and adjusted down in line with whatever your view is of the likelihood of delivery never happening (or happening so late as make them near worthless).

Pretty sure most "investors" don't so anything like that - their means of valuing a company is to see what range it's trading in and (if they're smarter than average - which doesn't actually mean a lot) buy towards the bottom of that range.