Re: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious
Quote from: anonymous
When I see those charts I always have to reflect on how this has all played out and I'm astounded.
So yes, the LTC chart seems to show that LTC is just playing out how we should expect really.
So yes, the LTC chart seems to show that LTC is just playing out how we should expect really.
I had a similar reaction when I viewed today the LTC chart in perspective of this theory of first hump and then second larger hump that seems to occur in technology adoption.
Quote from: anonymous
Although as you were saying, and I had thought myself many times, LTC didn't really seem to have any unique and valuable characteristics and I kinda assumed it was dead.
Yeah I just couldn't think of any compelling feature that could ignite LTC, but I had myopically forgotten that perhaps Litecoin could activate SegWit (and thus Lightning Networks scaling). And it hadn't completely become clear to me until 2-3 days ago, that Bitcoin was never going to fork or softfork significant changes to its protocol. I explained why. Once I realized Bitcoin is never going to allow any major changes to its protocol, then I started to think about what would Blockstream do. That is when I was ripe for realizing what the LTC spike in price is probably about. Of course most of the Bitcoiners are stuck on this concept that Bitcoin has to scale, which I have realized is entirely unnecessary (and you still need to understand this) because Litecoin can scale yet Bitcoin will still capture the lion's share of the value of the scaling of Litecoin.
Quote from: anonymous
After you had mentioned hedging by buying other alt-coins, I got thinking that in terms of a true hedge, LTC seemed to be the most non-volatile coin for the past 2 years. I was going to make a purchase of LTC simply as a safe haven to wait out the BTC mess and I literally woke up the next morning and it had jumped from $4ish to $6ish. Once I reviewed your ideas more, it seemed to be sign and it made perfect sense that LTC would adopt SegWit and get it's second chance.
Many of us were looking at LTC and almost ready to pull the trigger. I was wanting to trade 33% of my ETH because ETH had risen from $45 to $52, so I wanted to lock-in that gain. I just was too slow in assimilating my thought process (because of being overworked and still somewhat chronically ill), so I too woke up to find the price had jumped before I had finished my analysis. But then I was able to quickly assimilate all the facts and realize what was really going is not likely just another pump & dump.
Quote from: anonymous
Now thinking of LTC as the the Silver to BTC's Gold, again it feels like it should play out that way. I don't know how to explain it other than a feeling for me. Are you saying that you believe BTC can't rise until LTC catches up because you see it as a Gold/Silver ratio and it's too far out of line right now? Or are what specifically are you seeing in the chart?
I mean fundamentally it makes total sense to me that BTC will not go higher until the scaling issue is resolved. LTC activating SegWit doesn't solve it for BTC, but it does clear the air of the negativity surrounding the BU/Core squabble.
I mean fundamentally it makes total sense to me that BTC will not go higher until the scaling issue is resolved. LTC activating SegWit doesn't solve it for BTC, but it does clear the air of the negativity surrounding the BU/Core squabble.
Not a feeling. I have explained that Bitcoin can never get scaling. The only way currently known to get scaling (note I haven't published yet
), is private fractional reserve banking via centralized hubs with Lightning Networks. And to realize this will end up giving Bitcoin much more value than it will give to Litecoin (after Litecoin has caught up and is no longer extremely undervalued). And the only realistic way we get LN on a coin that has a suitable pedigree is Litecoin. There is no other option. Not only pedigree, but also because only Litecoin is sufficiently undervalued in order to totally shock the mining network of Litecoin such that old A4 will be mining profitably on the huge price jump so all the old A4 stock will get sold and will of course signal SegWit.So it is just the free markets flowing downhill in the path of least resistance. No need for a feeling. It is an objective economics analysis.
No need for voodoo black magic or magical guesses of seeing a witch's eye in a cloud formation.
