Re: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious
@miscreanity what I see on those charts is that Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows after the $1280 (isn't that a double-top from the peak intraday price in 2013?), which is short-term bearish. And the candlesticks on Litecoin are forming a wedge pattern which about to breakout, either to the upside or downside (but normally such a pattern will continue in the direction it was on, so upside breakout).
Combine that chart understanding with the fundamental understanding of Bitcoin as Nash's ideal money, and that is why I posit that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.
Perhaps my hypothesis is totally wrong, but I've shared it all in open source for others to respond to.
Combine that chart understanding with the fundamental understanding of Bitcoin as Nash's ideal money, and that is why I posit that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.
Perhaps my hypothesis is totally wrong, but I've shared it all in open source for others to respond to.
Not necessarily wrong, likely just incomplete - as all of our models are. There's no way to keep up without computer assistance.
I use Bitfinex numbers for Bitcoin, and on 03/25 (I dislike the American style of M/D/Y but am accustomed to it over D/M/Y) the low of 888.20 was in which was just a few dollars away from the bottom of the accelerated uptrend channel at 885.40 (uncannily, that price was a Gann level as well on the weekly charts and Bitcoin bottomed almost exactly at the cross where those two lines intersected). Since then, we can see the hourly chart has a consistent stair-step appearance with a rise followed by consolidation and little correction, if any - something that I've seen a number of times with markets that are throwing off weak hands prior to acceleration by denying (re)entry points (notably gold & silver in 2011).
For these kinds of markets, keep a core position for hodling and some funds in reserve to buy on the first or second dip after a spike that breaks out of the previous range. Only use the reserve amount to trade with, and wait for a major decline that is typically >10% to even consider selling from core holdings. The spike after such a drop is the best time to sell between a 1/3-2/3 of holdings; you may only get ~80% of the high but you have much more solid confirmation. I would also avoid aggressively trading any beyond daily levels, 1-4 hour is good but be attentive.
As each of the projection lines is crossed, the price generally moves toward the top of the next channel or its midpoint. The blue line is a channel border and the dashed lines are channel midpoints.
Markets are fractal meaning patterns in time within larger patterns within larger time.
Your chart above is afaics (or let's say IMO) only looking at the deadcat bounce off the $888 level. My comment which you quoted is referring to the wave pattern since the peak last month at $1280.
You have an ascending wedge on your latest chart, and thus afaik more often break downwards, not upwards. I see BTC hugging the bottom channel line of the wedge, and this to me indicates weakness.
I still think BTC is range bound until LTC catches up. I believe it is going to be epic.
I am hypothesizing that BTC will be range-bound (eyeballing it perhaps $800 - $1150ish), until Litecoin has clearly signaled that it is resuming its relevancy and on the way towards an ATH.