@iadix be back with you shortly...
You seem to forecast further out than I'm comfortable doing. I've grown to like waiting for the charts to be fairly definitive.
You are a trader. I am a value investor (with a very strong technological slant).
That is why I miss for example a good trade on Ripple.
My greatest value is as a creator and programmer so I shouldn't be doing this activity.
But I had a need to do this, to turn my 10 BTC into potentially 50BTC which can aid the funding of my altcoin project (given I am not doing an ICO). Also this analysis was an offshoot of diversionary analysis I needed to do anyway to make sure I understand the Nash ideal money value proposition of Bitcoin so as to understand how my project fits into the big picture.
If I disappear from speculation discussion, you'll know it is because I am head in sand on my primary vocation, although I notice I am finding it too tempting lately to go off on too many polymath-like tangents. I really need to discipline myself asap. For example, I was tempted to go off and research Ripple right now to get to the essence of it, but I decided not to.