Michele Mosca, a professor at the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Quantum Computing and the co-host of the workshop, pegged the odds of reaching Y2Q by 2026 at one in seven, rising to one in two by 2031. This is nearly 15%!!!!
http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/hacking-cryptography-and-the-countdown-to-quantum-computing