Are you aware that you are trying to rationalise against something that you are ALMOST doing? (there's not much difference between 90% and 100%).
I don't know if the price will go up or down.... just making a point about something I find a bit incoherent.
I think that you are missing some points, possibly.
BTC constitutes less than 30% of all of my quasi-liquid investments, and within my BTC portfolio, I buy BTC on the way down and I sell BTC on the way up, and currently within my BTC portfolio I have about 90% in BTC and 10% in dollars. That can still add up to a lot of funds in dollars.
If BTC prices go down 50%, I will still probably have nearly 98% of my funds in BTC, and I try to never run out of dollars in order to buy BTC on the way down (so I allocate small portions to continue to have dollars and kind of anticipate up and down volatility, rather than straight down). Further, if BTC goes up 4x, I will still likely have more than 85% in BTC.. It is like raking off the profits, but still having lots of BTC and end up having lots of dollars too.
Funny how it works like that. I don't think you can accomplish anything similar with your investment by having 100% in dollars? makes no sense to me.
Sure, I could allocate in different proportions, but my system seems to work pretty good, and it was even working good when my BTC balance was floating between 93% and 98% - however, recently, I had some of my own issues that caused me to have my current 90% allocation, which is a bit more lopsided towards dollars than my overall preference. I am constantly selling on the way up and constantly buying on the way down and reconsidering - which direction to tweak - but I do not take radical moves such as selling anymore than 5% at a time, even though I could foresee maybe selling a bit higher of a proportion if the market might seem to call for such.
I understand what you are saying, and in fact it is very similar to what I do. But again, it's not that different to what that guy says he did. Only a 10% different in the betting to the upside or downside.
So basically you are hedging around 10% and he is hedging 0% of the funds allocated to Bitcoin investment. In the end what really matters the most is if you are right or wrong on your bet. Other than that, it's just a 10% difference. Also, most people can decide to allocate additional funds to Bitcoin if deemed appropiate.
I personally think that it makes a big difference to bet 100% versus betting 90%, and to play around with the 90% in the system that I employ (and maybe you too with the something similar that you mention).
There is a mindset difference too, to gamble everything in one direction or another versus the hedging that does not cause as much of a betting behavior.
In the end, I will admit that my overall approach is biased in favor of long term upwards price movements and relies upon a certain amount of ongoing volatility to increase its profitability. Otherwise, the application of my whole systematic approach is almost non-thinking. It is like the application of an algorithm (like a bot) to almost assuredly make money as long as you stick to the system.
Without giving some kind of details regarding how the betting 100% one way or another works, it does not seem like that guy is employing any kind of system, except for luck and guessing. So, maybe in the end, I need more details from that other guy regarding how he employs his seemingly guessing game system.
In other words, he guesses on the direction of the prices and I do not... there is a whole hell of a lot of difference in those two kinds of systems and those two ways of thinking (even though you are trying to argue that they are almost the same, when they are not).
Maybe an example might help? This is not exactly my whole system, but it is the main part of my system.
Let's say in my system, I begin trading with 10 coins, and BTC price are around $300, and I trade for 2 years with the same amount of coins and I use those proceeds from those trades to buy back. For some reason, you would think that after 2 years, and reaching a 90% allocation, that once BTC prices reached $1,200 my system would cause me to have 9 coins and about $1,200? Right? But instead my system has allowed me to have 10 coins and $1,200 with the same amount of investment. I don't know the math exactly, but for some reason, my system seems to have allowed me to maintain the same amount of coins and to stack dollars.
Personally, with the betting 100% system, I really don't think that systematically a person could have as much confidence to have the similar kinds of consistent results if he was continuously betting 100% in one direction or another. In my opinion, just seems to be too much reliance on luck and too much reliance that at one point or another, the bet is going to go wrong which in the end causes long term losses rather than gains.