Re: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious
Channels are important and to me the market says this is not an issue. The thick blue line in the LTCBTC chart is the long-term downtrend from the 2013-2015 highs. This run should go to 0.015 at a minimum. I also consider this to be a stair-step advance where the decline is not enough to allow solid entry points, but sufficient to force weak holders into panic selling.
Additionally, markets like to fill the gaps seen on the downward move in the LTCBTC chart, so we should come back up to at least close those.
We have until April 10th for the long-term downtrend and the bottom of the current channel to force a direction. There is likely to be a decisive move over the weekend, which I expect to be positive.
I would sell some if 0.00855-0.00865 is broken, and most if 0.00775 is breached.
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Additionally, markets like to fill the gaps seen on the downward move in the LTCBTC chart, so we should come back up to at least close those.
We have until April 10th for the long-term downtrend and the bottom of the current channel to force a direction. There is likely to be a decisive move over the weekend, which I expect to be positive.
I would sell some if 0.00855-0.00865 is broken, and most if 0.00775 is breached.
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We are still within the channel!
We actually fell out and down to the price targets. I should've made the distinction that the numbers were for the daily period despite the charts being hourly, otherwise I would've sold most of my holdings below 0.00775 down to 0.0073. Instead, 0.00775 held on the daily level and appears to be forming up as support.
Since the pattern formed from the drop out of the rising blue channel did not continue down on the 8th but actually broke up and out of the declining red channel, traders became trapped and bailed down to where 0.0075 became the battleground. I'll stop short of saying this is blatant whale manipulation action designed to squeeze extra profit, but I've seen this type of price movement all too often in the precious metals markets.
Obviously the move was not positive but negative. We have hit a low going into April 10th which has done an excellent job of shaking the weak hands out - volume and the second breakout from the downward channel suggest a consolidation period or even a resumption of gradual rise as smart money continues building its position.
Note the disparity between exchanges with as much as USD 0.40 or BTC 0.0001 difference. The leveraged exchanges tend to lead the way with expanding spreads going into price rises and shrinking or even reversing spreads going into declines.
I had sold some at 0.0085 and picked back up under 0.0077 since the momentum began from outside of the channel. You were absolutely correct in buying that dip down to 0.0073 and we now only need to break above 0.0081 on the daily level to continue up. Also daily, just shy of 0.0076 will become support if it holds.
An expanded channel appears to be forming after today's low, and the monthly channel resistance and support are 0.0188 and 0.0135 respectively.