If early adopters and disheartened speculators want to sell it down to $20 and buyers are greedy enough to collectively wait, well, it will go to $20. That is within the realm of possibility. Then we would be sitting on a mere 100% YTD gain. Single digits, no way. At that point I can buy the new supply daily, which kind of stabilizes the freefall

Indeed. I think at 20 or below, I would be buying regularly. I only made a couple of small buys above 100 but wasn't really comfortable with those. Just wasn't getting enough BTC for the $.