BTC has been rising on declining volume. That indicates to me that this rise will not make it to a new ATH before it falters. I am sticking with my theory that BTC is range bound until Litecoin gets SegWit.
I think we are going to see another leg up on LTC as the SegWit signaling has climbed back up to 68%.
This pullback has brought us back to the uptrend line, which I expected we would come back to test one more time and especially given BTC is up today.
Given the steepness of that uptrend line (on the right chart quoted below) we either have to fail and crash or start another leg up soon. Failing and crashing seems to not be very likely. So I say load up now on the LTC you want for the next run up. If that uptrend line holds, we have to be back above 0.009 within 6 days 0.011 within 2 weeks. So that is a minimum 40% increase in your BTC within 2 weeks if the uptrend line holds (which it has thus far throughout this crazy volatile rise).
Also today we broke out above that downward blue channel in the left chart quoted below!
Thoughts?
I tend to agree on your thought pattern. Except we are in for a longer term, because SegWit will not reach 75% on mining support. There is just too much hashing power on BTC miners that will gently block the LTC SegWit activation. They'd be stupid not to milk the cow. It's a flaw in the system, we cannot even blame the miners for doing that.
Once the user activated soft fork becomes reality, your scenario seems reasonable.